According to @BullTheoryio, the market assigns 98.4% odds to a 25 bps BOJ hike tomorrow, which would lift the policy rate to 0.75%, the highest since 1995, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, Bitcoin fell 26% over the following 8 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, after the BOJ raised rates to 0.50% on Jan 24, 2025, Bitcoin declined 25% over 20 days, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025. According to @BullTheoryio, similar downside could occur around this decision, although past BOJ-driven BTC selloffs were followed by strong recoveries to new all-time highs, source: @BullTheoryio on X, Dec 18, 2025.